India’s cabinet reshuffles

Predicting the outcome of a reshuffle of the Indian cabinet makes even the most seasoned political pundit hostage to outrageous fortune.

A flurry of senior ministers in premier Manmohan Singh’s administration beating a path to 10 Janpath, the residence of Sonia Gandhi, president of the ruling Congress party, signals an imminent shake-up.

The reshuffle, expected as early as Wednesday evening, is the first since the Congress party led coalition was re-elected in 2009. It comes as the government struggles against a tide of embarrassing corruption scandals and stubbornly high inflation that it has failed to tame.

Mrs Gandhi will be hoping to give 78-year old Singh’s team a much-needed refresh. She needs to be seen to punish non-peformers, and show zero tolerance for the corrupt. She is also likely to inject some younger bloods, heralding a generational change that in time may bring her son, Rahul, into the top job.

She has a mountain to climb. The government faces some strong criticism for its lassitude in spite of presiding over high economic growth. The front page of the Economic Times this week carried the headline: “A government of 1.2bn and just 112 decisions.” It identified 2010 as the worst year of the decade for Indian governance with parliamentary paralysis and slumping legislative activity.

Well-respected commentators like Pratap Bhanu Mehta, head of Centre for Policy Research, describe the cabinet as in “internal disarray” and in flight from decision-making. Other senior business figures, regulators and judges say the country is facing a crisis of ethics that is in danger of becoming an even bigger crisis of confidence in the Indian state.

So we should expect some strong medicine meted out from 10 Janpath. Some heavy casualties are expected. As many as eight cabinet ministers could be swept out by some estimates. While the top jobs, like home, finance and defence, appear safe, some of the second-rung economic portfolios, like steel, mining and heavy industry, could be up for grabs.

Likewise, new appointments could be made in law, sports and parliamentary affairs.

Three of the most keenly watched figures will be Kamal Nath, the highways minister, Kapil Sibal, the education minister turned telecoms minister, and Sharad Pawar, the agriculture minister.

Nath, formerly a high profile trade minister and flambuoyant negotiator at the World Trade Organisation, is a waning star. After promising extraordinary gains in road building activity when he came office, he has fallen notably silent over past months after scrapping with the planning commission for more resources for his ambitious plans.

Sibal brought welcome energy into the crucial education portfolio but Singh has leant on his legal brilliance to help plug holes in the listing telecoms ministry after the departure of A. Raja, the former minister, in the face of corruption allegations. Sibal currently looks after education, telecoms and science briefs. Surely too many?

Finally, Pawar, a powerful Maharashtra politicians with lots of fingers in pies and almost as many cabinet responsibilities, has blotted his copy book with his tepid charge of the agriculture and consumer affairs portfolios at a time of spiralling food prices.

A scornful opposition Bharatiya Janata party says a reshuffle won’t make any difference. LK Advani, a senior BJP leaders, describes “a tug of war” going on in the heart of the ruling coalition – a battle that his own divided party has failed to translate into its own improved political capital.

A big test of Gandhi’s political skills in the coming weeks is to convince Indian voters that the coalition has drawn a line under a disappointing return to office. Failure will hasten a much tougher reshuffle at the top.