Fearless Oscar nomination predictions

Our movie experts Liz Braun, Kevin Williamson, Jim Slotek and Bruce Kirkland weigh in on who most deserves it, who least deserves it, and who gets snubbed come Tuesday morning.

BEST-PICTURE NOMINEE

That will most deserve it

LIZ: Winter's Bone. You won't know any of the cast or the director, but this scrappy little film about a determined Ozark Mountain girl facing down her own criminal family is storytelling at its best. Wonderful performances should win this film a spot among the crowned heads, big-name boxers and Facebook founders.

BRUCE: The Social Network. Facebook, tweet, blog and otherwise digitally distribute this easy prediction, David Fincher's drama is the best of the bunch from 2010. It is superbly constructed, directed and performed. It is not only winning acclaim as sublime entertainment, but it serves as an intelligent insight into how society has evolved in the digital age. Yet Fincher seems so humble about it all and that makes the film's success all the more deserving.

JIM: The Social Network. Acting, writing, directing, relevance. It's one thing to make a gee-whiz movie about a dreamworld where buildings collapse on each other. It's another to tell a story about court depositions and make it crackle.

KEVIN: The Social Network. Gripping lead performances, a virtuoso screenplay and lightning-paced direction underscore what Hollywood tends to forget: there are no boring subjects (even Facebook), just boring movies. Bonus points for the score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

BEST-PICTURE NOMINEE

That will least deserve it

LIZ: Inception. Hype central. The film is interesting until about the halfway point, and then it's an exercise in self-consciousness. You won't care about any of the characters or what happens to them, which is always telling.

BRUCE: The Town. There is no chance that Oscar voters will be as stupid as the Golden Globe idiots who nominated Burlesque and The Tourist in one of their best picture categories. Oscar has one big list of 10 -- and I expect quality throughout. But, if Ben Affleck's thriller The Town makes it instead of Mike Leigh's superior Another Year, I will be sorely vexed. The Town is good, not great, and Affleck needed an extended cut on Blu-ray to fill in storytelling holes.

JIM: Inception. Saw it twice, fell asleep the first time. Or did I dream that? At last, someone has come up with a plot device more infuriatingly paradoxical than time-travel! No performances are touted for awards, which means it could be this year's Avatar.

KEVIN: The Town. Crime thriller cliches aplenty, a Hollywood ending and some questionable acting (i.e. Blake Lively) make this a lesser film than Ben Affleck's directorial debut, Gone Baby Gone. Also: the downside of attempting to be Heat? You invite comparisons to Heat.

PERFORMANCE NOMINEE

That will most deserve it

LIZ: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech. As Ethan Hawke said about Training Day, "If I've done my job correctly, Denzel Washington will get an Academy Award." Ditto Geoffrey Rush and Colin Firth in The King's Speech -- that's a pas de deux that makes Black Swan look like an also-ran.

BRUCE: Colin Firth, The King's Speech. Firth not only does his job of humanizing King George VI with electrifying precision, he illuminates how and why the ability to communicate can change history.

JIM: Natalie Portman, Black Swan, for sheer degree of difficulty. There aren't many people alive to attest to the verisimilitude of Colin Firth's George VI, but dancers of all stripes have been impressed by Portman's wannabe-dark diva (many claim to have known real-life versions thereof).

KEVIN: Christian Bale, The Fighter. Bale is no stranger to physical transformations, but here he also electrifies with a pinball motor-mouthed mania. Then you see the real-life Dickie Eklund and realize how uncannily Bale is channelling him.

PERFORMANCE NOMINEE

That will least deserve it

LIZ: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole. She's the one person in the movie who is never quite three-dimensional. Aaron Eckhart and Miles Teller do all the emotional heavy-lifting in this story of mourning.

BRUCE: Angelina Jolie, The Tourist. I respect Jolie enormously, for her public service, sexy persona, quick wit and her talent. But, if Oscar gets the hots for her just to jazz up the 2011 ceremony, I reserve the right to scream in agony.

JIM: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. Love him, loved True Grit. But his Rooster was pretty much Crazy Heart's Bad Blake after five years in the woods without a bath. Which isn't a bad thing. It's just not transcendant or inventive.

KEVIN: Justin Timberlake, The Social Network. The pop singer has been campaigning hard for a nomination, meaning he could get one. But frankly he's eclipsed by his co-stars (Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield and Armie Hammer, to name three) in the film.

ACTOR/ACTRESS

Most likely to get snubbed

LIZ: Lesley Manville, Another Year. Hollywood never knows what to do with Mike Leigh's movies, and they certainly won't know what to do with Lesley Manville as a faded beauty who can't quite discern why her life is so completely off the rails.

BRUCE: Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen, Another Year. Neither is in play. Both are amazingly subtle and quiet. But the flashier performance by Lesley Manville is the only one from this film getting attention. And she may not make it either.

JIM: Armie Hammer, The Social Network. Why? Well, he's 6'5", 220 pounds and there were two of him. Without him and his buffoonish characters the Winklevosses (Winklevi?), it would have been a much more stiflingly serious movie.

KEVIN: Tie: Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine. The controversy their sex scene generated will probably turn off more prudish Oscar voters.

THE MOST OBVIOUS

"It's his/her turn" make-good nomination

LIZ: Christopher Nolan, Inception. Nolan may get a best director nod for appearing to up the intellectual ante with Inception -- after being more or less ignored for such entertaining films as Memento, The Prestige and The Dark Knight.

BRUCE: Christian Bale, The Fighter. He already has his Golden Globe. He will be Oscar-nominated, as best supporting actor. And he may win, thanks to guilt in Hollywood over past snubs, including for American Psycho and Batman Begins. Bale has never been nominated before.

JIM: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan. Lots of respect from critics over the years, and no doubt from younger Academy members. But he's never been nominated - not even for The Wrestler. His ex, Rachel Weisz, has one. Karma owes him a nom.

KEVIN: Colin Firth. He was nominated last year for A Single Man, but got steam-rolled by the Jeff Bridges juggernaut. This time, the Academy will hand Firth the trophy.

MOST WORTHY SEX SCENE (If Oscar had that category)

LIZ: Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine. He sings, she tap dances, and they're both fully clothed, but the yearning and anticipation involved makes it one of the most riveting sex scenes in any movie.

BRUCE: Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine. With searing intensity, honestly and graphic role-playing, these two mined human sexuality for better and for worse, 'til divorce did them part. Instead of titillation, this simulated cinema sex is all about illuminating the state of mind of a married couple.

JIM: Tie: Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine, and Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis in Black Swan. Both are "oral" scenes, but U.S. censors only red-flagged the hetero one. Not sure what that says, exactly.

KEVIN: Amanda Seyfried and Julianne Moore, Chloe. Because the best sex scene is the one in which the most psychological damage is inflicted. (For the same reason, I almost cited the threesome attempted in Get Him to the Greek.)

FURTHER PROOF The Academy is run by old, out-of-touch white men...

LIZ: There are 10 best picture nominations but only five best director spots, and you can be sure they'll go to middle-aged white men named Fincher, Boyle, Nolan, and like that. Even though Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right) and Debra Granik (Winter's Bone) should see their films make the best movie cut, don't expect to see them on the best director list.

BRUCE: Christopher Nolan's complex and thrilling Inception is just not getting the traction it deserves. While it is guaranteed Oscar noms, including as best picture, it is obvious that the respect to be shown will just be a token gesture, just as it was for Nolan's masterful picture, The Dark Knight. Inception is too smart, and too technically innovative, for the doddering fools who fill in their Oscar votes with old-school attitudes.

JIM: On one hand: It is the whitest slate of nominees in years. The King's Speech probably made them feel young again. On the other: Clint Eastwood, Martin Scorsese and Roman Polanski all had movies out this year, and none got a free pass. Kudos to the Academy for nominating out of the box.

KEVIN: The King's Speech, which is in a best-picture showdown with The Social Network. It will be telling which one wins: the film about nerds who revolutionized social media or the period piece about a British monarch who addressed his subjects via radio.

CANADIAN ACTOR OR FILM

Most worthy of a nomination

LIZ: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. If you've seen the movie, this requires no explanation. If you haven't seen it, go now.

BRUCE: Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version. While Giamatti is an American, he adores Canada (witness his shout-out to the nation at the Golden Globes). And he is playing a Canadian -- Montreal author Mordecai Richler's fictional alter ego -- in a quality Canadian film. Giamatti is a long shot for a best actor nom but is definitely deserving.

JIM: Denis Villeneuve's Incendies is simply a shocking drama, even more provocative than his earlier Polytechnique -- with a twist ending it should be illegal to spoil.

KEVIN: Denis Villeneuve's Incendies is deserving, certainly. But I'd be pleasantly shocked if Rachel McAdams received a nomination for Morning Glory. No, it won't happen. But Julia Roberts was nominated for Pretty Woman, so why not McAdams, who was vivacious, funny and incandescent?

MOVIE THAT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST NOMINATIONS

LIZ: The Social Network. Six nominations.

BRUCE: The Social Network and The King's Speech will tie with 10 nominations.

JIM: The King's Speech will have noms in every major category except best actress, for a total of 10.

KEVIN: The King's Speech nudges ahead of The Social Network.

OSCAR THROW: The Oscar noms will be announced early Tuesday morning, beginning at 8:30 a.m. EST.
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