Best Bets for Grammy Glory

Best Bets for Grammy Glory: Jay-Z, Eminem, Justin Bieber

After a lengthy hiatus from making music, rapper Eminem blasted back into the limelight this year and leads all artists with 10 nominations for the 2011 Grammy awards. Industry watchers from The Los Angeles Times to MSNBC believe that his album, Recovery, is a lock for Album of the Year.

Tossing around terms like “shoo-in” and “sure thing” is easy to do, but harder to prove. In the case of Eminem’s album, however, the phrases “odds-on favorite” and “good bet” are verifiably accurate — Recovery is a one-to-four favorite in the online betting world, meaning you’d have to wager $400 to win $100 from a bet on the album’s victory.

Album of the Year is one of a handful of Grammy categories available for wagering on sites like BetUS, Sportsbook and BetOnline. Though none of those companies would return requests to disclose exactly how much money changes hands over the ceremony, the breadth of betting options suggests quite a healthy market.

Eminem may be the odds-on favorite for Album of the Year, but he trails Jay-Z and Alicia Keys for Record of the Year. On Sportsbook, a $100 wager on the New York duo’s “Empire State of Mind” would bring back an even $100, meaning it’s favored slightly over Eminem and Rihanna’s “Love the Way You Lie” ($125), Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” ($300), B.o.B and Bruno Mars’s “Nothin’ On You” ($400) and Cee-Lo Green’s “F*** You” ($500).

But Cee-Lo Green’s tune leads the confusingly-similarly-named Song of the Year category (the award is meant as a nod to songwriters, as opposed to recording artists). A $100 bet on “F*** You,” written by Bruno Mars, yields $175; “Need You Now” ($200) is a close second, followed by Miranda Lambert’s “The House That We Built” ($250). Longshots are “Love the Way You Lie” and Ray LaMontagne and The Pariah Dogs’ “Beg Steal or Borrow” (both $400).

Perhaps the surest bet is Justin Bieber for Best New Artist, a five-to-two favorite. That means you’d have to bet $250 to win $100 on a victory by the cherubic crooner. A $100 wager on one of the underdogs could yield a handsome payout in the unlikely event of a victory — $200 for Florence & the Machine, $250 for Mumford & Sons, $450 for Drake and $800 for Esperanza Spalding.

For the most bizarre Grammy bet, though, Bieber isn’t favored. The prop? Whether or not golden-locked Green Bay Packer Clay Matthews, who’s presenting an award, will make a reference to the teenager on air. In the unlikely even that the Super Bowl champ does mention Bieber, a $100 bet will yield a $300 payout.

Zack O’Malley Greenburg will be covering the Grammys all weekend from Los Angeles. You can also follow him on Twitter @zogblog
For more on the business of music, check out Zack’s new book Empire State of Mind: How Jay-Z Went From Street Corner to Corner Office, due out March 17th.